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Dean Perspectives
Representative Client Engagement – Pipeline Drug Valuation
Client Problem:
- As part of a commercial assessment, Dean & Company conducted a full risk-adjusted valuation of a target pipeline drug, which was in Phase II/III trials for the treatment of advanced malignant melanoma, as well as a second indication
Approach:
- Build a comprehensive view of the scientific, competitive, and regulatory context of the pipeline drug
- Develop a financial assessment that leverages the relevant key value drivers
- Highlight strategic considerations to maximize the probability of achieving returns on investment
- Make an investment recommendation based on the client’s ROI targets and appetite for risk
Results:
- We estimated the risk-adjusted NPV of the target drug to be $225MM by taking the following into consideration:
- Revenue potential
- Anticipated costs
- Competitive landscape
- Probability of regulatory approval
- Notably, our valuation weighs a low (~10%) probability of the drug achieving blockbuster results against a high (~90%) probability of moderate profits or a net loss
Representative Project Output (Blinded):
